Tag Archives: Pau Gasol

Wages of Wins Podcast: Devin Dignam about Eurobasket 2011 and the Draft

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The Podcast

You can find the show here Wages of Wins Podcast – Devin Dignam International Talk

The Crew

Devin Dignam from NBeh? (Toronto Raptors blog)

Dre Alvarez (@NerdNumbers)

Show Notes

  • More international visitors in large part thanks to Devin’s recent Eurobasket 2011 posts including
  • Devin agrees with my point from the Valley of the Suns Podcast – Advanced Stats in the NBA may be cracked and improving Draft and International scouting is the next big leap.
  • Devin points out a lot of international ball is tournaments, which falls victim to small sample size (which almost altered this article)
  • Devin is happy with the Raptors international pick Jonas Valanciunas
  • The one and done rule has stopped team from taking hot high school prospects with the top 3 picks and Andrea Bargnani may have stopped teams from taking top international picks with the top 3 picks.
  • Devin throws a low blow to a Nuggets fan by bringing up Nikoloz Tskitishvili
  • Dre points out that despite the lack of international picks in the top 3 has slowed but they are still prominent in the lottery.
  • Dre and Devin agree Ricky Rubio will not likely help out the Timberwolves.
  • In spite of our bashing Andrea Bargnani and Ricky Rubio both played well in Eurobasket 2011
  • Dre says you shouldn’t overreact to tournament/playoff performance. In contrast Mosi Platt’s brother thinks Pau Gasol should be traded from the Lakers for a bad series this year.
  • When given the choice between a top NCAA pick or a good looking “mystery box” international pick Devin says he’ll stick with the NCAA player until around pick 20.
  • Interestingly enough San Antonio owns the rights to many players that played well in Eurobasket 2011
  • Did Utah have a dislike of potentially talented international players?
  • Devin points out that in the Fiba U19 and Eurobasket that awards were given using the Yay Points! method.
P.S. I know some of the RSS feed etc. is not being updated. I’m looking at changing how I produce the podcasts. I’m looking at some various other software. If anyone has good recommendations for the best way to produce a podcast on the Mac please let me know.

The “Top Performers” of Eurobasket 2011

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Something that FIBA Europe did for each game during the Eurobasket was to assign a “top performer” from each team. I thought it would be interesting to take a look at these players and see if I could spot any trends in how they were determined.

Take a look at the following graph:

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Almost three quarters of the players who were designated as “top performers” by FIBA Europe led their team in Win Score, whereas only about two thirds led their team in points scored, and even fewer “top performers” led their team in Estimated Wins Produced. For interest’s sake, I also took a quick look at rebounding to get a better feel for the other categories. As you can see, rebounding is not nearly as important in determining the “top performer” as the other three statistics.

What does it mean? It means that people are starting to realize that there’s more to productivity than just scoring. If FIBA Europe valued scoring more than overall productivity, “top performers” would have led their team in points more often than in Win Score. But the opposite is the case.

We can also look at the data another way:

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Here we see the more complicated breakdown. One third of all “top performers”  led their team in Win Score, Estimated Wins, and points. About one quarter of “top performers” led their team in Win Score and Estimated Wins, but not points. Fourteen percent of “top performers” led their teams in points, but not Win Score or Estimated Wins. Thirteen percent led their teams in Win Score and points; six percent led their team in none of the three categories, as well as both Estimated Wins and points; four percent led their teams in only Win Score; and not a single “top performer” led his team solely in Estimated Wins.

Why is Win Score a better indicator of a “top performer” than Estimated Wins? To make a long story short: Win Score is a more obvious outcome than Estimated Wins. Estimated Wins are calculated on a game-by-game basis, using the average Position Adjusted Win Score per minute (PAWSmin). In some cases, this means that players with high Win Scores see their Estimated Wins suffer, because their counterpart opponents also played well. Similarly, in some cases players with lower Win Scores end up with higher Estimated Wins because their counterpart opponents played poorly. This makes total sense, by the way – in a game where every point guard is going nuts, the most productive point guard really has to outdo everyone to make a difference. In the same vein, in a game where every point guard is playing poorly, it doesn’t take much to be considered a very productive point guard.

So again we must ask the question: why, if FIBA Europe is generally more impressed by Win Score over points, did they award Juan Carlos Navarro the MVP over Pau Gasol? For starters, FIBA isn’t perfect. For example, about six percent of the “top performers” didn’t lead their teams in Win Score, Estimated Wins, or points. Second of all, the player with the highest Win Score still failed to be awarded the “top performer” honour one out of every four times.

Even still…I’m not going to let this one go: Pau Gasol was robbed.

- Devin

Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

The Wages of Wins 3 on 3 Fantasy Draft

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On the Miami Heat Podcast Mosi Platt and Alfredo Artuaga brought up a great idea. If the NBA players put on a 3 on 3 tournament in a great venue such as Las Vegas who wouldn’t want to watch? Mosi even did a rundown of how the best three person combos on each team looked. With no NBA to watch the Wages of Wins Network decided it would be a lot of fun to draft three person teams (and one alternate) using a snake draft. We’ll be posting the results the next couple of days. Here are our contestants

  • Greg Steele, our Houston Rockets experts, has the 1st, 12th, 13th and 24th picks
  • James Brocato of Shut Up and Jam (a Seattle Supersonics/Oklahoma City Thunder blog) has the 2nd, 11th, 14th and 23rd picks
  • Patrick Minton of The NBA Geek (a Timberwolves blog) has the 3rd, 10th, 15th and 22nd picks
  • Arturo Galletti, co-editor of the Wages of Wins and head writer at Arturo’s Silly Little Stats has the 4th,9th, 16th and 21st picks
  • Ben Gulker of Pistons by the Numbers has the 5th, 8th, 17th and 20th picks
  • Devin Dignam of NBeh? (a Toronto Raptors blog) has the 6th, 7th, 18th and 19th picks.
Each contestant kindly added a few words explaining their pick. With that let’s run down the first round of picks.

Round 1

1) With the first pick Greg selects Kevin Love:

The differences between the 5-on-5 game and the 3-on-3 game
necessitate certain adjustments in player evaluation. Players whose
primary strength is attacking the basket are slightly less valuable in
ahalf-court game with no referees. Players with good long-range
jumpshots, good passing skills, and high basketball IQ are somewhat
more important in the 3-man game. K-Love gets checkmarks in each of
the above three areas, and is the best rebounder available in 3-on-3,
5-on-5, or any other permutation. The only downside to the pick is
that it leaves my team with relatively weak interior defense. -Greg

2) With the 2nd pick James selects LeBron James:

Love him or hate him, there’s no denying that LeBron is the best all-around player in the NBA. He can score (yes, he’s even a decent 3 shooter), rebound, pass, and defend with the best of them. He’s nearly impossible to guard, which makes him super valuable to a 3v3 team. He can get the basket practically at will, and if he doesn’t like his chances at the shot, he can find his teammate on the wing over the open 3 when the defenders collapse on him. If he decides not to drive, and to shoot the 3, I still like his chances. His ability to defend the wing and the post would also prove to be very valuable in a 3 on 3 game. -James

3) With the 3rd pick Patrick selects Kevin Durant:

When playing by 2s and 3s, Wade or Howard would clearly be the best choice her, but Durant is a beast in a game by 1s and 2s because he shoots so well from 3 and so efficiently when he drives.  I’m actually thrilled with this pick as I believe he’s the #1 pick in this format. -Patrick

4) With the 4th pick Arturo selects Dwight Howard:

Rough choice here for me and I’m torn. Best big or best small? I believe someone said something about a short supply of tall people. My pick is Dwight Howard. The defense, interior presence on offense, defense and the boards we all know about but I think the fact that it’s street ball pushes it over the top for me. Lots of no calls on fouls and lots of ridiculous blocks that would have been goaltends in an NBA game. I could see some two pointers getting blocked. Totally happy with this pick. -Arturo

5) With the 5th pick Ben selects Chris Paul

He’s a fantastic ball handler, excellent at breaking down defenses off the dribble, fantastic distributor, and pesky defender. With little-to-no help defense in a 3-on-3 setting, Chris Paul will have a field day. -Ben

6) With the 6th pick Devin selects Pau Gasol

I’m going to start with my big man – Pau Gasol. Other than Howard, he’s the best all-round big for this format. He can shoot from almost everywhere (don’t believe me? Check out his Eurobasket stats – 7/11 threes in 10 games), can rebound, pass, defend reasonably well. I have him ahead of Love because of his defense and basketball IQ. -Devin

Any surprise omissions? Also to clarify the rules this is a 3 on 3 tournament played half court, counted by 1 and 2 and the players honorably calling their own fouls.

-Dre

Quick Takes: Gasol v Navarro II

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How about any of the above for MVP?

A quick follow up on the Pau Gasol vs Juan Carlos Navarro for MVP debate.

Something that FIBA Europe did for each game during the Eurobasket was to assign a “top performer” from each team. Now, very shortly I will be doing some more research how these top performers were determined, but in light of yesterday’s article (where I wrote that Gasol was more deserving than Navarro) I thought it would be interesting to take a look at the number of times each of these players were given the “top performer” honours on the official Eurobasket website:

Player

Games Played

# of “Top Performer” awards

Pau Gasol

10

7

Serge Ibaka

11

2

Marc Gasol

11

1

Rudy Fernandez

11

1

Juan Carlos Navarro

11

0

Interesting. According to FIBA’s own website, Gasol was Spain’s top performer in seven of the ten games he participated in – including the final against France. And Navarro was never deemed Spain’s “top performer”, despite the fact that he played in all eleven games. Why did FIBA Europe decide to contradict all their previous efforts at determining the most productive Spanish player?

Well…we know why, but still, that knowledge doesn’t make the MVP decision any more palatable or more just. Gasol deserved that MVP!

And just in case you are someone who is skeptical about everything we say here at the Wages of Wins Journal,  I’m not the only one who thinks that way.

- Devin

Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.

Eurobasket 2011: Navarro steals Gasol’s MVP

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Spain won the 2011 Eurobasket today, and unlike the U19 FIBA World Championships, this time I was keeping up with the games. Consequently, I have the Estimated Wins Produced stats from all 90 games ready to go, only hours after the final whistle!

Who should have won the MVP?

"I'll let you have this one"

Following his 27 points in the final, Juan Carlos Navarro was named the MVP of the tournament. Did he deserve it? Here is the list of the top 15 players in the Eurobasket tournament, as ranked by Estimated Wins Produced:

Table 1: Eurobasket Players ranked by Estimated Wins

Player Country EWP40 EW
Pau Gasol Spain 0.519 3.4
Antonis Fotsis Greece 0.343 2.55
Bo McCalebb Macedonia 0.261 2.48
Andrei Kirilenko Russia 0.285 2.32
Nicolas Batum France 0.236 2.04
Simas Jasaitis Lithuania 0.264 1.98
Tony Parker France 0.216 1.89
Mirza Begic Slovenia 0.345 1.88
Juan Carlos Navarro Spain 0.239 1.78
Vitaliy Fridzon Russia 0.306 1.78
Viktor Sanikidze Georgia 0.261 1.68
Vojdan Stojanovski Macedonia 0.216 1.59
Dirk Nowitzki Germany 0.265 1.58
Chris Kaman Germany 0.27 1.51
Zoran Dragic Slovenia 0.222 1.48
  • Note: players in bold were named to the all-tournament team

Navarro’s teammate Pau Gasol was clearly the best player in the tournament. In addition to being tops in terms of total wins, Gasol was also the most efficient player (as measured by EWP/40) in the entire tournament. The fact that Gasol lost out to his teammate is a travesty. But overall, the all-tournament team did pretty well. Of the five selections, the only one I have an issue with is Navarro. Which isn’t too bad – it’s not like he won the MVP or anything.

What would cause someone to put Navarro on the all-tournament team? If we rank all players by total points scored, we may find out:

Table 2: Eurobasket Players ranked by total points.

Player Country EW Points
Bo McCalebb Macedonia 2.48 235
Tony Parker France 1.89 221
Juan Carlos Navarro Spain 1.78 206
Pau Gasol Spain 3.4 201
Andrei Kirilenko Russia 2.32 164
Dirk Nowitzki Germany 1.58 156
Nenad Krstic Serbia 0.43 155
Nicolas Batum France 2.04 152
Dusko Savanovic Serbia 0.66 147
Marc Gasol Spain 1.3 146
Antonis Fotsis Greece 2.55 130
Goran Dragic Slovenia 1.01 129
Pero Antic Macedonia 1.1 128
Ioannis Bourousis Greece 1.06 128
Chris Kaman Germany 1.51 124
  • Note: players in bold were named to the all-tournament team

Wow, that code was pretty easy to crack. In order to be named to the all-tournament team, all you had to do was score the most total points. The MVP was going to come from someone who played on the winning team – which was Spain – so McCalebb and Parker were out of the running (had France won the final, you’d better believe that Parker would’ve won the MVP). The reason that Navarro got the nod over Gasol seems to be that Navarro scored a gargantuan five more points! Rather incredible, isn’t it?

WoW All-tournament team

Given that I disagree with Navarro’s MVP and all-tournament team selection, a new all-tournament team is in order. In order to determine the WoW all-tournament team, all I did was choose the top players (in terms of Estimated Wins) at each position. That gives us the following list:

Table 3: Devin’s All-Tournament Team

Player Country Position EWP40 Estimated Wins
Pau Gasol Spain F/C 0.519 3.4
Antonis Fotsis Greece F 0.343 2.55
Andrei Kirilenko Russia F/C 0.285 2.32
Bo McCalebb Macedonia G 0.264 2.48
Nicolas Batum France G/F 0.236 2.04
Mirza Begic Slovenia C 0.345 1.88
Simas Jasaitis Lithuania F 0.264 1.98
Tony Parker France G 0.216 1.89
  • Note: players in bold were named to the all-tournament team

As usual, I’ve cheated and added three backups. But even with the three backups, Navarro still doesn’t make the team, let alone win the MVP.

- Devin

Devin Dignam (of NBeh? “fame”) is the Toronto Raptors writer for the Wages of Wins Network. His background with the Raptors gives him unique insight into many areas including the draft, overpaid players and overrated players.