Tag Archives: Shaquille O’Neal

Losing your star in a bad trade

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Via Zimbio

Picture this scenario. Your team has been doing great the past few seasons. They even had a disappointing loss in the conference finals just two years ago. Your team is having contract negotiations with its star forward. Finally things break down, the team trades the player for pennies on the dollar and your once great franchise goes into a tailspin.

We’re not talking the Nuggets, which of course you know! However, this exact story did play out just a few seasons ago. In 2008 the Phoenix Suns decided to trade Shawn Marion to Miami for Shaq. This move was bad in so many ways. Let’s do a quick rundown.

Marion was a much better player than Shaq

At least that was true in 2008 (Totally checking to see if you read the articles as opposed to skim!)

Shawn Marion2006-2011
Season G MP WP48 WP
2006 81 3263 0.267 18.2
2007 80 3010 0.265 16.6
2008 63 2315 0.253 12.2
2009 69 2470 0.187 9.7
2010 75 2385 0.129 6.4
2011 80 2253 0.168 7.9
2012* 25 736 0.197 3.0
*2012 is through February 4th 2012. 2012 numbers provided by the NBA Geek. All other numbers via Wages of Wins.
Shaquille O'Neal 2006-2011
Season G MP WP48 WP
2006 58 1805 0.158 5.9
2007 40 1135 0.078 1.8
2008 61 1748 0.088 3.2
2009 75 2252 0.139 6.5
2010 53 1240 0.052 1.3
2011 37 752 0.138 2.2

In 2006 Shaq was still a decent big but was clearly second fiddle to Wade. By 2007 and 2008 Shaq was pretty much done. In his remaining life as an NBA player he only had one decent season left in 2009. Going into 2008 Marion was at the top of his game. In 07 the Suns were arguably a bad ref call (or stupid play by Amare) away from a third consecutive trip to the conference finals. There’s really no way to slice trading a top player in the league for a washed up former great.

It didn’t help money wise

I’ll throw Phoenix a bone here (and promptly snatch it back). Marion allegedly was asking for a three year $60 million extension. In 2009 Marion was turning 30 and this is right around the time players start to degrade. In fact, if we look at Marion’s numbers above, we see that’s what happened. However, had the Suns just ignored Marion’s demands then the following would have happened. They would have kept Marion’s services for 08 and kept a core of greats together that had recently made it far in the playoffs. Marion would probably have signed his 09 extension. The Suns would have kept Marion for another season and a half of greatness. At the end of that they’d have first rights to bargain for him or let him walk and free up cap flexibility.

What’s more, if the Suns complaint was money and age then Shaq was a confusing trade choice. Understand that the Suns got no picks or money from the Shaq trade. Shaq also had two years remaining on his contract taking him into 2010 whereas Marion’s contract would have expired in 09 (and that’s if he had taken the extension) Finally Shaq’s contract was more expensive than Marion’s ($20-$21 Million as opposed to $16-$17 million) So to avoid giving a great player they feared would degrade with age an expensive contract they traded for a former great player that had degraded with age an expensive contract! That’s some dramatic irony right there!

2010 would have been the same

I do feel I should put this out there. In 2010 the Suns surged back to prominence. A lot of this was by getting Jared Dudley and Jason Richardson from Charlotte. This of course a familiar story as Charlotte enjoys improving other teams. At the same time Marion had his worst season and was about as good as Grant Hill was in 2010. As such 2010 would have been a similar season if Marion was around instead of Hill (and the Suns still made the Richardson/Dudley deal).

The Suns could use Marion now

This season the Suns have Nash, Gortat and Dudley playing well. Childress is also a very good player that if given more playing time would help. As we can see this clears four out of five positions. Where the Suns are weak is at their forward spot. Channing Frye and Hakim Warrick are simply not good players. Clearly the Suns could use Marion this season. The Suns can be content that they were fine off in 2010 (a season where they traded Shaq for Ben Wallace and then paid Ben Wallace $10 million to go away to be just as good as they would have been with Marion). However they gave up the 08 season where Amare was playing at his highest level. They missed the playoffs in 09 and are currently sporting a losing record. Trading Marion is a perfect example of how losing a star player can impact a team. I hope all of the current people calling Melo a star will look back and take note. Of course I find it more likely that Melo will continue to be overrated the rest of his career and Marion will end his career underrated.

-Dre

An NBA history lesson: How to lose with style starring the Denver Nuggets

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This weekend Marcus Camby had  an impressive and interesting game in Portland’s trouncing of the Suns. Camby pulled down 20 boards to go with no points. One of Denver’s most prominent twitter fans J.R. (@Smooth_Operatah) remembered the last time Camby has a 20+ rebound game to go with no points, which was back when he was in Denver.

On December 5th 2007 Allen Iverson shot an astounding 73% True Shooting Percent and scored 51 points. Couple this with a 20 rebound game for Marcus Camby’s and you have the makings of a crazy game. To me the bizarre part was that the Nuggets lost.  Using Basketball-Reference’s box score database, which includes all regular season games back to the 1985-1986 season and all playoff games back to 1991, I went in search of a game where such a feat had occurred and more importantly where the team managed to lose. The exact criteria I used was a True Shooting percentage of 55% or better for 50 points or more and another player with 20 or more rebounds.

Boston Celtics lose in OT to the Atlanta Hawks 126-123 on February 3rd 1987

It took five extra minutes of play but the Human Highlight Reel  and Willis managed to put up the impressive combo of stats I was looking for. Of course, the end result was victory against the defending champs.

New York Knicks win in OT against the Atlanta Hawks 137-128 on December 7th 1991

The first example of a team getting a 50 point scorer with good numbers and twenty rebounds to go with it to lose. Like before it took overtime and strangely enough the tandem it happened to was Willis and Wilkins!

Denver Nuggets lose to the Chicago Bulls 116-103 on March 24th 1992

His Airness joins the list with the help of the underrated Grant. The Nuggets also make their way onto the list but as the losing team. In 1992 Jordan scoring a lot, Grant rebounding  and the Nuggets losing were all pretty common.

San Antonio Spurs beat the Minnesota Timberwolves 114-89 on February 21st 1994

One of greatest and shortest lived tandems makes the list. Robinson and Rodman both did what they do best for the victory. Robinson also took down 9 more boards and had 6 blocks for good measure.

Chicago Bulls beat the Miami Heat 106-100 on November 6th 1996

Rodman and Jordan both make it back to the list. In just the fifth game of Rodman joining the Jordan-Pippen-Jackson Bulls Rodman and Jordan put up an impressive line. The end result was a win and given the closeness of the game every rebound and point was needed.

Los Angeles Lakers beat the Los Angeles Clippers 123-103 on March 6th 2000

  • Shaquille O’Neal 23 rebounds (7 offensive)
  • Shaquille O’Neal 61 points (24-35 FG 69%, 0-0 3P 0%, 13-22 FT 59%)

I was obviously looking for tandems when I started this search. Turns out Shaq was able to do it all on his own back in his MVP season. It’s also quite amuing to note that Shaq shot better from the field than from the line and brought down more defensive rebounds than free throws.

Indiana Pacers beat the Sacramento Kings in OT 93-91 on January 5th 2001 (Honorable Mention)

  • Chris Webber 26 rebounds (10 offensive)
  • Chris Webber 51 points (24-47 FG 51%, 0-1 3P 0%, 3-6 FT 50%)

Webber didn’t meet my criteria for True Shooting percentage (55%) but his stat line was still impressive enough I wanted to make sure I included him. He also joins the Nuggets and the Hawks in the loss column, which is definitely sad given an otherwise great game.

Detroit Pistons beat the Chicago Bulls 110-83 on April 3rd 2001

In 2001 Ben Wallace was the best player in the league on an otherwise abysmal Pistons roster. Jerry Stackhouse on the other hand was not a very good player but he was able to have a very good game. The result was a great game in an otherwise terrible season.

Los Angeles Lakers beat the Denver Nuggets 111-107 on December 5th 2007

Camby was no stranger to rebounding. Iverson was no stranger to scoring. However, Iverson managed to shoot efficiently and the result was an impressive game. Of course Carmelo Anthony, Kenyon Martin and J.R. Smith shot terribly and the Nuggets managed to be the only team in the last 25+ years to lose with a 20+ rebounder and a 55% True Shooter with a 51 point night in a regulation game.

 Summing Up

I was quite happy I was able to find another game to match the Nuggets in losing with such an impressive line. Of course the Nuggets stand alone as the only team to do so in regulation. I also have to give some props to players that appeared multiple times:

  • Dominique Wilikins
  • Kevin Willis,
  • Michael Jordan
  • Dennis Rodman
Thanks again to @Smooth_Operatah for the great idea and if you have other interesting stat lines to look for definitely let us know.
-Dre

 

Who were the real Playoff MVPs of 1995?

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With the lockout in full swing our analysts have been antsy. We’re happy to answer fan requests for historical fact checking*. Today’s request comes via a Tweet from Mosi Platt of the Miami Heat Index:

@NerdNumbers You have your assignment RT @NBAHistory: Announcer Bob Neal: “Horace Grant is the MVP for the Magic in this series thus far.” @NBATV NOW (Orl/Chi, Gm 6, ’95 EC Semis)

The 1995 playoffs were pretty crazy. The Orlando Magic took down the Bulls despite Michael Jordan returning. The Houston Rockets shocked the world and won it all despite being a lowly sixth seed. Two surprising facts came from these two series.

Horace Grant was the MVP of the Magic-Bulls Series

Don't look back, they might be gaining!

In a series with Michael Jordan and Shaquille O’Neal, it’s surprising to realize the best player on the court was indeed Horace Grant. Here was the breakdown in terms of Wins:

  1. Horace Grant (Orlando Magic) 251 Minutes, 0.293 WP48, 1.53 Wins Produced
  2. Shaquille O’Neal (Orlando Magic) 238 Minutes, 0.265 WP48, 1.31 Wins Produced
  3. Scottie Pippen (Chicago Bulls) 248 Minutes, 0.221 Wp48, 1.14 Wins Produced
  4. Michael Jordan (Chicago Bulls) 254 Minutes, 0.192 Wp48, 1.02 Wins Produced
  5. Anfernee Hardaway (Orlando Magic) 246 Minutes, 0.133 WP48, 0.68 Wins Produced

Bob Neal was speaking the truth. Horace Grant was better (just barely) than Shaq, and together Shaq and Horace rant circles around Scottie and Michael. Of course Horace and Shaq’s great play may have come from playing a team lacking bigs. Against the Rockets they crumbled when faced with Hakeem’s Finals MVP performance. . . or did they? That brings us to surprise fact number two.

Clyde Drexler was the real finals MVP in 1995

Well at least they both got a trophy.

We can maybe give Hakeem some credit for slowing down Shaq in the finals. That said, Clyde’s performance was inspired. Here’s how the finals went down:

  1. Clyde Drexler (Houston Rockets) 162 Minutes, 0.342 WP48 1.15 Wins Produced
  2. Robert Horry (Houston Rockets) 187 Minutes, 0.213 WP48, 0.83 Wins Produced
  3. Mario Elie (Houston Rockets) 161 Minutes, 0.199 WP48, 0.69 Wins Produced
  4. Shaquille O’Neal (Orlando Magic) 180 Minutes, 0.176 WP48, 0.66 Wins Produced
  5. Anfernee Hardaway (Orlando Magic) 172 Minutes, 0.179 WP48, 0.64 Wins Produced
  6. Nick Anderson (Orlando Magic) 161 Minutes, 0.160 WP48, 0.54 Wins Produced
  7. Hakeem Olajuwon (Houston Rockets) 179 Minutes, 0.122 WP48, 0.46 Wins Produced
  8. Horace Grant (Orlando Magic) 168 Minutes, 0.084 WP48, 0.30 Wins Produced

Sadly Horace Grant’s greatness disapeared in the finals. But the story wasn’t Hakeem outplaying the bigs of Orlando; the real story was how Clyde Drexler and Robert Horry destroyed the Magic from the wings.

With no NBA in front of us for the foreseeable future, it is fun to go back to the past. Let us know if you have any weird stories you want us to look into and — provided we have time and there are no developments with the lockout — maybe we’ll look into it.

-Dre

* Don’t worry Mark, I haven’t forgotten about the Spurs, they’re on deck.

Are NBA Players’ Salaries Increasing?

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Following up on our recent post about inflation adjusted salaries, I decided to take a look at how NBA player salaries adjusted for inflation and by experience varied across time.
Some trends:

  • salary increases with experience up until about year eight, plateaus until around year eleven, then declines until retirement
  • rookie salaries (years 0-2) have increased over the years
  • years 3-9 peaked in the late 90s to early 00s
  • years 10-14 have been trending upward over time
  • years 15-20 are somewhat trendless, due to small sample sizes
Potential reasons for these trends?
  • salary increases mirror player development, albeit with a few years’ lag
  • salaries for young players (0-3) have no doubt been affected by the rookie scale
  • particulars of the CBAs affecting years 4-9?
  • younger players (high schoolers) and medicine might explain the trend in years 10-14
Oh, and those outliers at years 16 and 17? Guess who!

Superman!

The NBA’s Top Earners

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Do not play poker with these two.

The NBA owners’ books are sadly closed to us. A great thing about the players is that their salary numbers are easily accesible. In fact, we have continuous salary data back to 1991 thanks to Patricia Bender and Basketball-Reference. I thought it would be fun to look over some of the top earners in the NBA adjusted for inflation since the 1991 season.  This list only includes players who entered the league on or after the 1990-91 season.

Player Total Salary*  Exp Rookie Year  Per Year
Shaquille O’Neal $354,136,836 19 1993 $18,638,781
Kevin Garnett** $315,370,217 16 1996 $19,710,639
Kobe Bryant** $220,661,776 15 1997 $14,710,785
Tim Duncan** $206,844,796 14 1998 $14,774,628
Jason Kidd** $203,305,233 17 1995 $11,959,131
Chris Webber $198,108,767 15 1994 $13,207,251
Ray Allen** $192,468,929 15 1997 $12,831,262
Tracy McGrady** $183,090,958 14 1998 $13,077,926
Allen Iverson $180,229,709 14 1997 $12,873,551
Rasheed Wallace $179,526,599 15 1996 $11,968,440
Jermaine O’Neal** $178,564,193 15 1997 $11,904,280
Juwan Howard** $172,779,067 17 1995 $10,163,475
Dirk Nowitzki** $155,751,068 13 1999 $11,980,851
Stephon Marbury $153,966,706 13 1997 $11,843,593
Anfernee Hardaway $152,739,135 14 1994 $10,909,938
Paul Pierce** $151,584,132 13 1999 $11,660,318
Dikembe Mutombo $150,861,243 18 1992 $8,381,180
Vince Carter** $148,780,265 13 1999 $11,444,636
Grant Hill** $147,629,190 16 1995 $9,226,824
Alonzo Mourning $145,326,228 15 1993 $9,688,415
Elton Brand** $139,545,457 12 2000 $11,628,788
Antawn Jamison** $139,404,543 13 1999 $10,723,426
Gary Payton $138,324,105 17 1991 $8,136,712
Baron Davis** $130,190,281 12 2000 $10,849,190
Rashard Lewis** $128,652,870 13 1999 $9,896,375
Note 1: All salaries adjusted for inflation and in 2011 value
Note 2: ** denotes active player

Shaq is likely to remain the most highly paid NBA player of all time unless the salary rules change. It’s a bit sad to see Kobe so high on the list, but luckily it’s unlikely he’ll overtake Garnett or Shaq — even with the insane amount of money he’s still due.

This list should illustrate several things though. First of all, some of the greatest players have been severely underpaid. Shaq, Garnett, Kobe, Duncan, and Kidd have all been key members of teams that have been to multiple finals. Despite their big paydays, it’s doubtful they’ve been paid what they were worth to their respective franchises.

Secondly, GMs have massively overpaid some players (Allen Iverson, Rashard Lewis, Jermaine O’Neal and Juwan Howard). This has a lot to do with the rule changes that were made in 1999 that severely limited rookie contracts and enforced player caps based on seniority. As an older player, Rashard Lewis gets more per year than Derrick Rose, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard (the recipients of the last 3 MVPs and Defensive Player of the Year Awards). However, we should note that the people that paid the ultimate cost were not the owners, they were the players who did not make this list.

-Dre and Devin