Tag Archives: Tim Duncan

It’s not 2008 anymore

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This post uses the Wins Produced metric. For longtime fans we’ve made a few changes in the offseason, you can read up on them in the walkthrough. For all fans you can find up to date numbers at the NBA Geek.

I listened to a very enjoyable video cast over at Truehoop yesterday with Haralabos Voulgaris (@haralabob) and he had a great line that I can’t agree with more:

You shouldn’t call a player that’s not currently playing at an All-Star level an All-Star regardless of what he did in the past

It is common to consider a player’s legacy when discussing their skill. This season Kobe has not been playing well. However, I have consistently ended up in twitter fights where Kobe’s legacy is included to justify his current performance. The idea that experience helps a player is a bit off.

In Stumbling on Wins Berri and Schmidt showed that players do not age like wine, they age like milk. This especially matters to Kobe, who is 33 this season. Of the 405 players that have suited up this season only 41 of them are 33 or older. In that group of veterans there are some players with some great legacies. In fact if we jump back to Kobe’s MVP season we can see how close these players are to greatness.

Greats over 33 years of age in 2012 back in 2008
Player Age MPG WP48 WP League Rank
 Chauncey Billups  31 32.3 0.287 15.1 4
 Marcus Camby  33 34.9 0.257 14.8 6
 Steve Nash  33 34.3 0.253 14.6 7
 Kevin Garnett  31 32.8 0.298 14.4 8
 Jason Kidd  34 36.3 0.236 14.3 9
 Kobe Bryant  29 38.9 0.194 12.9 14
 Tim Duncan  31 34.0 0.233 12.9 15
 Shawn Marion  29 36.7 0.253 12.2 18
 Paul Pierce  30 35.9 0.195 12.7 22
 Ray Allen  32 35.9 0.181 9.9 30
 Dirk Nowitzki  29 36.0 0.162 9.4 34
 Vince Carter  31 36.8 0.151 9.3 35
 Ben Wallace  33 32.5 0.174 8.0 49

Using the WP48 metric a player is generally considered a star if they have a WP48 above 0.200 (twice as good as an average player). They are considered a good player if they have a WP48 above 0.150 (50% better than an average player). In 2008 seven of our thirteen greats were playing at star level. All of them were playing much better than average and all ranked in the top 50 in the league for production. How big of a difference does four years make?

Greats over 33 years of age in 2012 (through January 10th 2012) via the NBA Geek
Player Age MPG WP48 WP
Ray Allen  36 34.9 0.334 1.7
Marcus Camby  37 25.2 0.264 1.3
Steve Nash  37 29.3 0.222 1.2
Ben Wallace  37 12.9 0.178 0.5
Jason Kidd  38 28.1 0.168 0.8
Shawn Marion  33 27.1 0.153 0.9
Kevin Garnett  35 30.4 0.126 0.6
Kobe Bryant  33 36.4 0.115 1.0
Paul Pierce  34 30.4 0.099 0.3
Chauncey Billups  35 30.6 0.089 0.3
Vince Carter  35 20.8 0.066 0.3
Dirk Nowitzki  33 31.0 0.059 0.4
Tim Duncan  35 25.2 =0.002 0.0

Excluding Ray Allen, Marcus Camby and Ben Wallace all of our former greats have degraded since their old days. Even Camby and Wallace are hard to give much credit to as their production is around the same on far fewer minutes. All of our players have decreased their playing time (I have no doubt the insane lockout induced schedule has contributed to that). In 2008 over half of our players were stars. Four years later less than half of them are much better than average. In fact, a few have fallen off a cliff.

Here’s a reminder from Stumbling on Wins how we expect players to change year to year as they age.

Player performance with age.
Age change Expected performance change from previous season
23 to 24 +2%
24 to 25 no change
25 to 26 -2%
26 to 27 -4%
27 to 28 -6%
28 to 29 -9%
29 to 30 -11%
30 to 31 -17%
31 to 32 -22%
32 to 33 -35%
33 to 34 -57%
34 to 35 -146%

Players peak around 25. Up until they’re around thirty their decline is slow. Once they hit thirty-two though their degradation is very swift. All of our greats are now in that range and some of them were already there four years ago.

When players age in sports it’s not a question of if they’ll stop being great it’s a matter of when. Sure some players can defy expectations. However, when we look at our current crop of older players with good resumes in the NBA it doesn’t look good to think that as a group they’ll even stay a shadow of their glory days. People can quote player awards, that they’re clutch (even if they’re not), or that they have experience. If they’re in their thirties though they’re a ticking time bomb waiting to fall apart and that even includes great players. So when someone reminds you that Kobe or Dirk was an MVP just a few seasons ago, it’s not out of line to ask what they’ve done for you lately.

-Dre

A closer look at Kobe’s clutch

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The Lakers questionable moves and Kobe’s possible injury woes this season had some of us looking into the Lakers fate. While I was in the midst of doing research for that I decided to take a closer look at a common theme for Kobe fans: Kobe is clutch and wins when it matters. Henry Abbott has written about how this is not true several times. A while back I even wrote why this doesn’t matter.

However, I decided to use Youtube to actually apply the eye test to some of Kobe’s greatness and look over every “clutch” (final 24 seconds of the game) game winning/game tying shot in Kobe’s playoff career. For perspective Kobe has taken 26 “clutch” shots in his playoff career and connected on a grand total of 7 of them. It gets worse.

The Youtube test for Kobe’s playoff clutchness

2000 Game winner in game 2 against Phoenix - Takes a terrible game winning shot in a series that’s decided in 5 games.

Verdict: Kobe clutch! (or lucky, take your pick)

2002 Game winner in game 4 against San Antonio - Loses the ball. Derek Fisher recovers it and drives and Kobe’s game winner is a put back.

Verdict: I give this one to Derek Fisher. Also, ironically Kobe’s “clutch” comes via rebounding not shooting.

2004 Game advancing shot in game 5 against San Antonio  - Kobe makes a good shot off a screen from Karl Malone. The thing is Tim Duncan makes a “clutch” shot to put the Spurs up. Right after that with 0.4 seconds left Fisher makes the game winner.

Verdict: Kobe’s clutch is upstaged by both Tim Duncan and Derek Fisher. I say we only get one clutch player per game and Fisher wins it and Kobe comes in third.

2004 Game tying shot in game 2 against Detroit – Kobe makes a deep three to send the game to overtime. It may have come off a questionable no-call on a drive by Chauncey Billups.

Verdict: Kobe clutch! (with an assist from the refs)

2004 Game tying shot in game 4 against Phoenix – Kobe makes a game tying shot to take the game to overtime. However this comes off a Smush Parker steal and then a perfect feed from Devean George. So he was clutch but it came on the back of some other arguably more clutch play.

Verdict: I’ve got to give the clutch to Smush Parker here. That said. . . 

2004 Game winning shot in game 4 against Phoenix – Kobe akes a pull up jumper for the game winner.

Verdict: Kobe clutch!

2008 Game winning shot in game 5 against San Antonio – Kobe makes a nice pull up jumper for the game winner.

Verdict: Kobe clutch!

Kobe clutch in 2006 vs. Phoenix?

Of Kobe’s seven clutch makes in the playoffs two of them came in one game and I have to credit Smush Parker with more of the clutchness in that. In that same series it should also be noted that Kobe was on one of only eight teams to lose a 3-1 lead in a series and he missed a clutch shot in game 6. So while he did have one clutch game the whole series was very anti-clutch.

Kobe fails the eye test

On the whole Kobe really only earns three of his seven clutch honors fully. It’s hard to really consider that winning when it matters. If the Lakers decline this season people may attribute it to the lack of Kobe’s winning attitude. While losing Kobe will certainly hurt it should be noted his “win while it matters” atttitude may be overrated. In fact I’d wager losing Odom hurts a lot more.

-Dre

The All-Time Spurs Team

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Back again to list my starting five and sixth man for the San Antonio Spurs. Basic rules:

  • Pick any player that played one or more complete seasons for the Spurs from 1978 on
  • Pick players based on their “prime” or top three complete seasons with the Spurs
  • Pick the best player for each position as well as a sixth man.

With that here are your all-time Spurs!

Point Guard – Johnny Moore

  • Wins Produced: 38.7
  • WP48: 0.247
  • Minutes Played: 7535
  • Top Seasons: 1982, 1983 and 1985

Johnny Moore was putting up over ten assists and almost three steals for the first half of the 80s. Sadly by 1986 he had started fading. Still, he is easily the best point guard the Spurs have seen and an easy pick for my team.

Shooting Guard – Manu Ginobili

  • Wins Produced: 43.6
  • WP48: 0.322
  • Minutes Played: 6509
  • Top Seasons: 2007, 2008 and 2010

Manu averages over 20 points on 58% true shooting to go along with over five assists and five rebounds per thirty six minutes. My only complaint is his playing time, which has been far too low for his production. Manu has been under-appreciated his whole career, which is why he was an easy pick ahead of a few other shooting guard greats in the Spurs history.

Small Forward – Dennis Rodman

    • Wins Produced: 46.7
    • WP48: 0.492
    • Minutes Played: 4557
    • Top Seasons: 1994 and 1995

Dennis Rodman only lasted two seasons in San Antonio. That said they were amazing seasons where Rodman focused on what he did best: rebounding. He did this while keeping his fouls and turnovers low and his shooting percentage high. He was also versatile enough to play both the small and power forward so I’ve bumped him down to add him to my team.

Power Forward – Tim Duncan

  • Wins Produced: 69.8
  • WP48: 0.363
  • Minutes Played: 9236
  • Top Seasons: 2002, 2003 and 2007

No surprises here. His three top seasons earned him two MVPs and two titles. The Spurs have gotten two of the greatest number one picks in the history of the draft. Tim Duncan has kept the Spurs a contender his entire career. We’ll have to see how much longer he can keep it up.

Center – David Robinson

  • Wins Produced: 80.4
  • WP48: 0.423
  • Minutes Played: 9116
  • Top Seasons: 1990, 1991 and 1996

I hope I don’t surprise anyone by saying not only is Robinson the greatest center the Spurs have ever seen, he is also the greatest Spur the Spurs have ever seen. You’ll notice one of Robinson’s accomplishments is that he was great right from his rookie season. What else can I say about a guy that could bring down 30 points, 13 rebounds and over four blocks a night without breaking a sweat?

Sixth Man – George Gervin

  • Wins Produced: 44.3
  • WP48: 0.245
  • Minutes Played: 8679
  • Top Seasons: 1978, 1979 and 1980

There was no way I could leave the Ice Man off the list. One of our pet peeves around here is players rewarded for high points on poor shooting. As such George Gervin is definitely a favorite as he was pulling down close to 30 points a night on great shooting.

Sixth Man – Artis Gilmore

  • Wins Produced: 44.0
  • WP48: 0.278
  • Minutes Played: 7587
  • Top Seasons: 1983, 1984, 1985

On most teams being a center putting up numbers like Gilmore did and you’re the starter without question. On the Spurs Gilmore is demoted to the bench. I couldn’t decide between Gervin and Gilmore and decided to throw them both on the team. Gilmore is another favorite as he put up numbers like Kareem did in the 80s but didn’t get the recognition. Well here you go Gilmore.

Summing Up

These are a lot of fun and I may keep doing them if the lockout persists and there’s fan interest. As we’ve mentioned the lockout has definitely let us talk a lot about tax rules and competitive balance but we do enjoy straight up basketball. If you’ve got any interesting stats stories you’d like us to look into drop us a comment, it’s not like we’ve got basketball to watch instead.

-Dre

All-Time NBA Teams So Far:

Did Tim Duncan and LeBron James cause NBA lockouts?

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There are lots of explanations for the lockout: parity, small markets being able to compete, and owners losing money are at the forefront of what we’ve heard. But when I was looking over NBA history, an interesting thing stood out:

  • In 2010, LeBron James was coveted by multiple teams; getting LeBron meant being a contender. Instead of going to an expected destination, LeBron made a surprise move and ended up in Miami. He immediately turned the team into a contender. The next season the owners locked the players out.
  • In 1997, Tim Duncan was coveted by multiple teams as a number 1 pick; getting Duncan meant being a contender. Instead of ending up at an expected destination, Duncan suprisingly ended up in San Antonio. He immediately turned the team into a contender. The next season the owners locked the players out.

In fact the same story goes back even further!

  • In 1982 Moses Malone demanded a trade from Houston (this was before free agency). Getting Malone meant being a contender. Instead of staying with his old team, Malone ended up in Philadelphia. He immediately turned them into a favorite. The next season the owners enacted the first salary cap on the players.

In the history of the NBA, when an MVP has made a surprising or unexpected move near negotiations, the owners have been very punitive toward the players. In the case of Tim Duncan, this even happened when it wasn’t the fault of the player! Every owner wants a title, and that requires an MVP candidate. When one enters the market, they feel entitled to the player, and when they don’t get them, they can get very upset. And when the owners get upset, the fallout can be excessive.

During the lockout we’ve heard a lot of theories. The problem with things like parity and the owners losing money is that they don’t hold up to scrutiny. Owners feeling entitled has been going been going on for decades, as has owners being upset at missing out on top players. So when we ask what caused the lockout, the answer may be simpler than we think — maybe the owners are just angry that they didn’t get LeBron. And you won’t like them when they’re angry. . .

-Dre

The Winningest Tandems

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Dre Alvarez (@nerdnumbers) is a Co-Editor for the Wages of Wins Network and is also in charge of handling the stats data. He’s a long time fan of Colorado Sports, depending on the weather. He’s an even bigger fan of the stats, data and all things nerdy.

It Takes Two to Tango

Looking at teams with two great players is always fun. Today I thought I’d go through all of the possible combination of positions to find the best set of players to ever play.

Before we get started, let me explain my methodology.  I begin with tandems where both players produced more than 10 wins in the same season.  In other words, a tandem only counted if both players hit the 10 Wins Produced mark. I then looked for tandems with multiple years on the same team.

Given this criteria, here are the top tandems.  Enjoy!

Top Backcourt (PG and SG)

En Garde!

Terry Porter and Clyde Drexler from 1987-1992 on the Portland Trail Blazers

  • Terry Porter (PG) – 17037 Minutes Played, 0.247 WP48, 87.7 Wins Produced
  • Clyde Drexler (SG) – 17524 Minutes Played, 0.320 WP48, 116.7 Wins Produced
  • Total – 34561 Minutes Played, 0.284 WP48, 204.4 Wins Produced

In six seasons these two anchored a great Portland team. They helped the Blazers to four 50 win seasons and two finals. This tandem is overshadowed by the Jordan-Pippen duo of the same period. Still, they are the greatest backcourt of the last 30 years.

Top Pass and Shoot (PG and SF)

There was this other guy too.

Dr. J and Mo Cheeks from 1980-1983 on the Philadelphia 76ers

  • Maurice Cheeks (PG) – 10001 Minutes Played, 0.257 WP48, 53.5 Wins Produced
  • Julius Erving (SF) – 10896 Minutes Played 0.291 WP48, 66.1 Wins Produced
  • Total – 20897 Minutes Played, 0.275 WP48, 119.6 Wins Produced
Dr.J had been a great player for a decade. In 1980 he got Mo Cheeks to back him up and the 76ers managed to make it to two finals. In 1982 Moses Malone came aboard and this team won it all. Sadly Dr. J’s age kept this tandem from staying on top. However, they helped the 76ers to 244 wins, 3 finals appearances and a title in four years. Not too shabby!

Top Pick and Roll (PG and PF)

Pick and Roll!

John Stockton and Karl Malone from 1988-2001 on the Utah Jazz

  • John Stockton (PG) – 37640 Minutes Played, 0.330 WP48, 259 Wins Produced
  • Karl Malone (PF) – 42171 Minutes Played, 0.289WP48, 254 Wins Produced
  • Total – 79811 Minutes Played, 0.309WP48, 513 Wins Produced

This pair was great for fourteen consecutive seasons! In that time they managed twelve 50 win seasons and two finals appearances. Stockton and Malone are the epitome of a top tandem and they have the numbers and results to back it up.

Top “Small” and Tall (PG and C)

Who's turn is it to be MVP again?

Magic Johnson and Kareem Abdul-Jabbar in 1980,1981,1982 and 1985 on the Los Angeles Lakers

  • Magic Johnson (PG) – 9938 Minutes Played, 0.430 WP48, 89.1 Wins Produced
  • Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (C) – 11426 Minutes Played, 0.265 WP48, 63 Wins Produced
  • Total – 21364 Minutes Played, 0.342 WP48, 152.1 Wins Produced

Thirty years later and this duo remains the best point guard and center combo I can find. Magic hit the ground running and Kareem still had some life. Every season these two were both healthy the Lakers won 55+ games and also won the NBA Championship. Sadly — because of Kareem’s age (he played college ball in the 1960s) — their window was short, but it was certainly sweet.

Top Wings (SG and SF)

How would you feel if you became a synonym for side-kick?

Michael Jordan and Scottie Pippen from 1990-1993 and 1996-1997 on the Chicago Bulls

  • Michael Jordan (SG) – 18596 Minutes Played, 0.382 WP48, 147.9 Wins Produced
  • Scottie Pippen (SF) – 18369 Minutes Played, 0.259 WP48, 98.9 Wins Produced
  • Total – 36965 Minutes Played, 0.321WP48, 246.9 Wins Produced
Once Pippen hit his prime, this duo tore through the league. In their six great seasons together the Bulls never failed to get less than 55 wins.  And they also collected five titles [and a 6th title in 1997-98]. Sadly, Jordan took a break in the middle (and by 1998 Pippen had faded). It’s pretty easy to call this one of the greatest tandem of all time.

Top Shooting Power (SG and PF)

Pace yourselves.

Reggie Miller and Dale Davis from 1993-1995 and 1997-1998 on the Indiana Pacers 

  • Reggie Miller (SG) – 14016 Minutes Played, 0.190 WP48, 55.5 Wins Produced
  • Dale Davis (PF) – 11665 Minutes Played, 0.221WP48, 53.6 Wins Produced
  • Total – 25681 Minutes Played, 0.204WP48, 109.2 Wins Produced
These two are the weakest tandem on the list. They are also the only one to fail to make a finals while both players were playing at their peak (they did make it in 2000 when Reggie Miller had faded). Reggie Miller was good but possibly over-appreciated and Davis was great and possibly under-appreciated. However, I think the Pacers would be happy to get them both back at this point.

Top Shaq and Kobe (SG and C)

Bickering like an old married couple.

Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant from 1999-2004 on the Los Angeles Lakers 

  • Kobe Bryant (SG) – 16114 Minutes Played, 0.216 WP48, 72.6 Wins Produced
  • Shaquille O’Neal (C) – 15213 Minutes Played, 0.339 WP48, 107.5 Wins Produced
  • Total – 31327 Minutes Played, 0.276 WP48, 180.1 Wins Produced
That’s right, this duo was good enough and popular enough to name the category. From 1999 to 2004 they managed to lead the Lakers to a threepeat and four finals. There were ups and downs and they split up a few seasons too soon. Still, they rightfully earn their spot.

Top Forwards (SF and PF)

Big Stiffs

Larry Bird and Kevin McHale from 1985-1988 and 1990 for the Boston Celtics 

  • Larry Bird (SF) – 15188 Minutes Played, 0.401WP48, 126.9 Wins Produced
  • Kevin McHale (PF) – 13222 Minutes Played, 0.239WP48, 65.9 Wins Produced
  • Total – 28410 Minutes Played, 0.326WP48, 192.8 Wins Produced
These two made up part of the greatest front court ever assembled. Bird and Parish were the big producers, but McHale definitely helped. Injuries limited him late in his career but his time at the top with Bird was well spent. The Celtics hit 50 wins every season with Bird and McHale playing hot and the Celtic also went to three finals (including one victory).

Top Mixed Bigs (SF and C)

Two out of three aint bad.

Larry Bird and Robert Parish from 1981-1987 and 1990-1991 for the Boston Celtics 

  • Larry Bird (SF) – 26672 Minutes Played, 0.372WP48, 206.5 Wins Produced
  • Robert Parish (C) – 23407 Minutes Played, 0.253WP48, 123.5 Wins Produced
  • Total – 50079 Minutes Played, 0.316WP48, 330.1 Wins Produced
The Celtics of the 80s were lucky enough to have a trio of great players. But  before there was the big three it was just Larry Bird and Robert Parish. These two helped the Celtics to 50 wins every season Larry Bird was healthy. They also tacked on three titles for good measure.

Top Two Towers (PF and C)

I intended to keep it at one tandem a category. I ended up making an exception here and we get a tie!

No, you're a power forward!

Tim Duncan and David Robinson from 1998-2002 for the San Antonio Spurs  

  • Tim Duncan (PF/C) – 14535 Minutes Played, 0.297WP48, 90 Wins Produced
  • David Robinson (PF/C) – 11243 Minutes Played, 0.298WP48, 69.9 Wins Produced
  • Total – 25778 Minutes Played, 0.298WP48, 159.9 Wins Produced

David Robinson waited a long time for his title. As soon as Tim Duncan joined the Spurs these two were a top tandem. Sadly David Robinson was already near the end and faded in 2003. These two managed to start San Antonio’s streak of 50 win seasons (it stands at 12 or 14 if you adjust 1999 season for 82 games). Tack on two titles and these two are the best Front-Court ever assembled.

We're better than Robinson and Duncan!

Charles Oakley and Patrick Ewing from 1989-1991,1993-1994 and 1997 for the New York Knicks

  • Charles Oakley (PF) – 15574 Minutes Played, 0.226 WP48, 73.2 Wins Produced
  • Patrick Ewing (C) – 18027 Minutes Played, 0.245 WP48, 91.9 Wins Produced
  • Total – 33601 Minutes Played, 0.236 WP48, 165.1 Wins Produced
These two just barely manage to put up a fight against Duncan and Robinson by having six seasons of greatness together (as opposed to five). They had four 50 win seasons and a trip to the finals. Oakley managed to contribute even as he faded by getting Marcus Camby to the Knicks via trade.

Summing Up

Hope you enjoyed the list. . With the exception of Oakley and Ewing vs. Robinson and Duncan the winner was usually clear cut. Still, I’d love to hear any names I may have missed.

-Dre